Talking about probability and making predictions

Expressing Probability and Possibility in English

When talking about future events, we often indicate how certain or uncertain we are about them. Here are different ways to express probability (likelihood) and possibility (chance) in English.

1. Expressing High Probability (Certainty or Near-Certainty)

These phrases indicate that something is very likely or almost certain to happen.

• Bound to (certain)
  • "With their talent, they are bound to win the competition."
  • "If you keep practicing, you are bound to improve."
• Sure to (certain)
  • "She is sure to get the promotion—she’s the most qualified."
  • "This new policy is sure to cause some controversy."
• Likely to (probable)
  • "Given the weather forecast, it is likely to rain tomorrow."
  • "They are likely to accept our offer if we negotiate well."
• Definite (certain)
  • "He’s a definite candidate for the leadership role."
  • "There’s a definite chance of a market rebound next month."
• Will definitely (100% certain)
  • "She will definitely attend the meeting."
  • "The project will definitely be finished by Friday."
• Will probably (very likely)
  • "They will probably announce the results next week."
  • "We will probably go to the beach if the weather stays nice."

2. Expressing Possibility (Uncertainty or Lower Probability)

These phrases indicate that something may happen but is not guaranteed.

• May (possible, formal)
  • "We may need to reschedule the meeting."
  • "He may join us later if he finishes work on time."
• Might (possible, less certain than may)
  • "There might be delays due to the strike."
  • "She might not come to the party after all."
• Could (possible, often hypothetical)
  • "This strategy could work if we execute it properly."
  • "The flight could be delayed because of the storm."
• … is possible (neutral possibility)
  • "It is possible that the deal will fall through."
  • "A last-minute change is possible, but unlikely."
• Will possibly (slightly more formal)
  • "They will possibly release the report next month."
  • "She will possibly consider your proposal."

3. Expressing Unlikelihood or Impossibility

These phrases indicate that something is improbable or definitely not happening.

• … is unlikely (not probable)
  • "It is unlikely that prices will drop this year."
  • "He is unlikely to change his mind now."
• Probably won’t (more conversational)
  • "They probably won’t agree to such a high price."
  • "I probably won’t have time to visit next week."
• Definitely won’t (certain not to happen)
  • "She definitely won’t be late—she’s always punctual."
  • "We definitely won’t move to a new office this year."
• … is highly unlikely (very improbable)
  • "It is highly unlikely that the law will pass."
  • "A sudden economic recovery is highly unlikely at this stage."

4. Modifying Probability with Adverbs

We can adjust the strength of probability using adverbs:

• Highly likely / unlikely (very probable/improbable)
  • "It’s highly likely that they’ll extend the deadline."
  • "A sudden resignation is highly unlikely."
• Quite likely / possible (fairly probable)
  • "It’s quite likely that they’ll approve the plan."
  • "A compromise is quite possible."
• Could possibly / probably (adds nuance)
  • "They could possibly accept a lower offer."
  • "We could probably finish by tomorrow."
• Most definitely won’t (stronger negation)
  • "He most definitely won’t agree to those terms."

5. Making Predictions: Will vs. Going To

We use will and going to for predictions, but with slight differences:

• Will → General predictions, decisions at the moment of speaking.
  • "I think it will rain later."
  • "She will probably become CEO one day."
• Going to → Predictions based on current evidence or plans.
  • "Look at those dark clouds—it is going to rain!"
  • "They are going to launch a new product next month."

Speaking Tip:

• "He won’t help us." → Suggests refusal (he decided not to).
• "He isn’t going to help us." → Neutral prediction (maybe he can’t).

6. Predictions Based on Present Evidence

When we predict based on current signs, we use going to:

• "Careful! That glass is going to fall!"
• "She is going to have a baby in June." (We know because she’s pregnant.)

Final Notes:

• Definitely / probably come after will in positive sentences:
  • "She will definitely call you."
• But before won’t in negative sentences:
  • "They probably won’t come."

This structure helps convey certainty naturally in English.